# Monsoon Update: Rainfall Forecast for Key Agricultural States
The summer heat is building across India, and farmers are now looking toward the skies, waiting for the monsoon rains. As of 16 May 2026, temperatures in major cities are climbing past 40°C, signaling that the pre-monsoon season is well underway. For millions of farmers across the country, the monsoon is not just a weather event but a lifeline that determines their income, food security, and livelihood for the entire year.
This detailed update brings you the latest rainfall forecasts for key agricultural states, what farmers should prepare for, and practical steps to make the most of the coming monsoon season.
Current Weather Situation Across India
Right now, India is experiencing typical pre-monsoon conditions. Delhi recorded 38.1°C on 16 May, with temperatures expected to touch 43.1°C by 21 May. Mumbai is seeing overcast skies with temperatures around 33.2°C and thunderstorm warnings. Bengaluru has already received light drizzle, recording 0.7 mm of rain, while Chennai experienced 3.3 mm of rainfall with thunderstorms.
Kolkata is dealing with high humidity at 87% and thunderstorm activity, having received 0.5 mm of rain. These scattered pre-monsoon showers are nature’s way of preparing the land for the main monsoon arrival.
The India Meteorological Department typically announces the official monsoon onset over Kerala around 1 June. This year, early indicators suggest normal to above-normal monsoon rainfall for most agricultural regions.
Rainfall Forecast for Major Agricultural States
Maharashtra: Thunderstorms and Pre-Monsoon Activity
Maharashtra, home to key crops like sugarcane, cotton, soybean, and onions, is seeing active pre-monsoon weather. Mumbai’s forecast shows continuous thunderstorm conditions from 16 May through 21 May. On 22 May, light drizzle of 0.6 mm is expected.
What this means for farmers:
The Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, which grow most of Maharashtra’s cotton and soybean, should prepare for the main monsoon arrival by early June. The Western Maharashtra sugarcane belt around Kolhapur and Sangli typically receives the monsoon first in the state.
Farmers should complete summer ploughing before the rains arrive. Those growing kharif onions in Nashik district should prepare nurseries now, as transplanting begins with the first good rains.
Karnataka: Early Showers Bring Relief
Bengaluru recorded 0.7 mm of rain on 16 May, and the forecast shows more significant rainfall ahead. On 18 May, 3.3 mm of rain is expected, followed by heavy showers of 5.1 mm on 19 May. The pattern continues with 3 mm on 20 May, 4.2 mm on 21 May, and another 4.2 mm on 22 May.
Agricultural impact:
Karnataka’s coastal districts usually receive the monsoon by early June, while North Karnataka gets it about a week later. The state grows substantial quantities of ragi, jowar, cotton, and maize during the kharif season.
Farmers in Hassan, Mandya, and Mysuru districts who grow ragi should start preparing their fields. Those in Raichur and Kalaburagi districts planning cotton should ensure they have quality Bt cotton seeds ready.
The early drizzle is excellent for arecanut and coconut plantations in coastal Karnataka. Coffee estates in Chikmagalur and Kodagu will benefit from these pre-monsoon showers, which help in berry development.
Tamil Nadu: Thunderstorm Warnings Continue
Chennai received 3.3 mm of rain on 16 May with thunderstorms. The forecast shows 3 mm of rain on 17 May, 0.6 mm on 18 May, and scattered thunderstorms continuing through the week. Temperatures will rise to 41°C by 21 May before slight cooling.
What farmers need to know:
Tamil Nadu follows a different monsoon pattern compared to other states. The main agricultural season depends on the northeast monsoon (October to December) rather than the southwest monsoon. However, the southwest monsoon still brings important rainfall to western districts.
Delta districts like Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, and Nagapattinam, which form the rice bowl of Tamil Nadu, will see kuruvai (short-duration) paddy cultivation starting in June. Farmers should ensure water availability in tanks and canals.
Tuticorin and Tirunelveli districts growing cotton and pulses will benefit from southwest monsoon rains starting late June.
West Bengal: High Humidity and Thunderstorm Pattern
Kolkata recorded 0.5 mm of rain with thunderstorms on 16 May. The forecast shows continuous thunderstorm activity through 22 May, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.3 mm to 2.1 mm. Humidity remains high at 87%, and temperatures will reach 40.8°C by 21 May.
Agricultural implications:
West Bengal is India’s largest rice producer, and the monsoon arrival around 5-10 June is critical for aman paddy cultivation. The state also grows significant quantities of jute, which needs heavy rainfall during June and July.
Farmers in Murshidabad, Nadia, and North 24 Parganas districts should prepare their paddy nurseries by mid-May. Jute growers in Cooch Behar and Jalpaiguri should complete sowing before the heavy rains arrive.
The Gangetic plains of West Bengal typically receive 1,200-1,500 mm of monsoon rainfall. This year’s thunderstorm pattern suggests good moisture availability for germination once the main monsoon sets in.
Other Key Agricultural States to Watch
Uttar Pradesh
India’s largest state by population and a major wheat and sugarcane producer will see monsoon arrival around 20-25 June in eastern districts and 25-30 June in western districts. Eastern UP districts like Gorakhpur, Deoria, and Azamgarh grow rice, while western UP focuses on sugarcane around Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, and Saharanpur.
Farmers should prepare for kharif sowing by ensuring seed availability, checking irrigation equipment, and completing fertilizer purchases before prices rise with monsoon onset.
Punjab and Haryana
The paddy belt of Punjab and Haryana receives monsoon rainfall from late June through September. These states recorded temperatures above 40°C in mid-May. Ludhiana, Patiala, Amritsar in Punjab and Karnal, Kurukshetra, Hisar in Haryana are major paddy growing districts.
Farmers here practice paddy transplanting rather than direct seeding. Nursery preparation begins in May, and transplanting happens in June once monsoon rains ensure adequate water in canals and tubewells.
Madhya Pradesh
The soybean capital of India, Madhya Pradesh receives monsoon rainfall from mid-June. Districts like Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Ratlam, and Mandsaur grow most of the state’s soybean crop. Farmers should purchase quality soybean seeds now, as spurious seed selling increases closer to the monsoon.
The state also grows substantial pulses like tur and urad during kharif. Rainfall adequacy in July and August determines the final soybean yield.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana
These twin states are major rice and cotton producers. Coastal Andhra Pradesh receives the monsoon by early June, while Telangana districts get it around 10-15 June. Districts like Guntur, Krishna, and West Godavari in Andhra Pradesh and Nalgonda, Khammam, and Warangal in Telangana are key agricultural zones.
The forecast indicates building heat through late May, which is typical before monsoon onset. Thunderstorm activity will increase from early June.
Practical Steps for Farmers Before Monsoon Arrival
Soil Preparation
Complete deep ploughing of fields to improve water retention. Fields ploughed before the rains absorb moisture better and reduce runoff. This is especially important for rainfed areas where every drop of water matters.
Apply farmyard manure or compost before ploughing. This organic matter improves soil structure and increases the soil’s capacity to hold water.
Seed Selection and Purchase
Buy certified seeds from government-approved dealers or agricultural universities. Check the seed tag for germination percentage, which should be above 85% for most crops.
For hybrid seeds like Bt cotton or hybrid maize, ensure you are buying from authorized dealers. Spurious seeds are a major problem during the monsoon season.
Popular kharif crops and their seed rates:
- Paddy: 20-25 kg
